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209b9c56316898dd01cfb475cbbfa5ce1 عام جديد للحرب الروسية الأوكرانية - الاتحاد الدولى للصحافة العربية

عام جديد للحرب الروسية الأوكرانية

لواء دكتور/ سمير فرج يكتب:


مر عام منذ بدء الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية، تمكنت روسيا، خلاله، من ضم أربع قطاعات من أوكرانيا إلى أراضيها؛ وهي لوهانسك ودونتسيك وزابورجيا وخيرسون، التي تمثل نحوي 20% من الأراضي الأوكرانية. ومع دخول تلك الحرب عامها الثاني، لازال العالم منشغل بتحليل، ودراسة، وتوقع، ما ستسفر عنه أحداثها، في الأيام القادمة؛ ففي ظل محدودية تلك الحرب، من الناحية العسكرية، كونها بين دولتين فقط، إلا أن آثارها طالت العالم، بأسره، من الناحية الاقتصادية، وانعكست سلباً على جميع مؤشراته، سواء بتراجع معدلات النمو، وارتفاع معدلات البطالة، والتضخم، في ظل ارتفاع أسعار الحبوب، وأسعار النفط، واضطراب سلاسل الإمداد العالمي.

ومع قرب انتهاء فصل الشتاء، بدأت روسيا الاستعداد للقيام بعملية هجومية شاملة ضد أوكرانيا، في حين يأمل العالم كله الإسراع بالدخول في مفاوضات سلام، لوقف نزيف خسائر تلك الحرب. تلك المفاوضات التي وضع الطرفين شروطاً مسبقة للدخول فيها، ركزت روسيا على أربعة منهم، أولها إعلان أوكرانيا حيادها، مثل سويسرا، مع نزع سلاحها بالكامل، ثانياً، إعلان أوكرانيا عدم الانضمام إلى حلف الناتو أو أي أحلاف عسكرية أخرى، ثالثاً، تعهد أوكرانيا بألا تصبح دولة نووية في المستقبل، وأخيراً اعتراف أوكرانيا بحق روسيا في ضم شبه جزيرة القرم، وباقي المقاطعات الأربعة.

ومن ناحيتها، اشترطت أوكرانيا أربعة شروط أخرى للدخول في مفاوضات سلام، وهي انسحاب القوات الروسية من كافة الأراضي الأوكرانية التي احتلتها، بعد يوم 24 فبراير 2022، ثانياً تقديم روسيا لتعهد، إلى الأمم المتحدة، بعدم مهاجمة أوكرانيا مستقبلاً، وثالثاً اعتراف روسيا بالخطأ في هجومها على أوكرانيا، وبالتالي كان شرطها الرابع أن تتحمل روسيا كافة تكاليف إعادة الإعمار في أوكرانيا، نتيجة خسائرها في هذه الحرب. ورغم ما قد يبدو للبعض من استحالة التوصل إلى اتفاق، في ظل تلك الشروط المتناقضة، إلا أنه في الحقيقة، وبالرجوع إلى الممارسات التاريخية، فإن جميع الخلافات يمكن حلها، إذا ما توفرت الرغبة لدى الأطراف، بالجلوس على طاولة المفاوضات.

وإذا ما عدنا إلى التحليلات الصادرة عند بدء القتال يوم 24 فبراير 2022، نجدها تشير لفلسفة الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، في إطالة زمن الحرب، بهدف استنزاف روسيا اقتصادياً، باعتبارها العدو الثاني لأمريكا. واتساقاً مع تلك الفلسفة، فقد أمدت الولايات المتحدة، والدول الأوروبية، أوكرانيا، خلال العام الأول من هذه الحرب، بأسلحة دفاعية، إلا أن التوجه تغير فجأة، منذ عدة أسابيع، بعدما قررت أمريكا وحلف الناتو إمداد أوكرانيا بأسلحة هجومية، والمقصود بها هنا الدبابات؛ إذ قررت أمريكا دعم أوكرانيا بدبابات من نوع ابرامز (M1A1)، وأمدتها ألمانيا بدبابات ليوبارد، أما إنجلترا فدعمتها بدبابات تشالنجر. ورغم أن تلك الدبابات هي الأحدث في الترسانة العالمية، إلا أن الأعداد المقدمة لأوكرانيا لا يتعدى 150 دبابة، وهو ما لا يمكن معه القيام بعمليات هجومية لاستعادة الأراضي التي احتلتها روسيا منها.

ورغم إدارة الولايات المتحدة لدفة الأمور، إلا أن قرب الانتخابات الرئاسية التي من المقرر أن يخوضها جو بايدن المنتمي للحزب الديمقراطي، أمام غريمه دونالد ترامب عن الحزب الجمهوري، تضع قيوداً على قرارات جو بايدن، فيما يخص الحرب الدائرة بين روسيا وأوكرانيا، خاصة بعد دخول الإدارة الأمريكية في وضع “البطة العرجاء”، الناتج عن حصول الحزب الجمهوري على أغلبية مقاعد الكونجرس الأمريكي، الأمر الذي سيحد من قدرة الرئيس الأمريكي على دعم أوكرانيا بالأسلحة والأموال، في ظل اعتراض الحزب الجمهوري، وعلى رأسه ترامب، على الدعم العسكري الأمريكي لأوكرانيا، لما يرون فيه من إخلال بالاحتياطيات الاستراتيجية للجيش الأمريكي. وهو نفس الاعتراض الذي بدأت حكومات دول حلف الناتو في مواجهته، بدعوى التأثير السلبي على الأمن القومي لبلادهم، خاصة وأن الأسلحة المقدمة لأوكرانيا لن يتم إحلالها قبل عامين، على أحسن تقدير.

وعلى الصعيد الروسي، فقد نقلت مختلف وسائل الإعلام اجتماع بوتين مع مجلس الأمن القومي الروسي، الذي أعلن خلاله التخطيط لعملية شاملة ضد أوكرانيا، مع بدء الربيع القادم، بعدما ينقشع برد الشتاء، ويذوب الجليد. وفي تقديري الشخصي فإن ذلك الهجوم الروسي، سيستهدف سرعة الاستيلاء على مدينة أوديسا، التي تعد الميناء الرئيسي لأوكرانيا، على البحر الأسود، ويتم من خلالها تصدير معظم المنتجات الأوكرانية للعالم كله. وفي حال نجاح روسيا في ذلك، ستحرم أوكرانيا من أي تواجد على البحار الخارجية، وتصبح دولة لا شاطئية، بعد أن فقدت موانئها على بحر أزوف، وهو ما يُمثل ضربة موجعة لأوكرانيا. وقد تمتد الخطط الروسية للاستيلاء على العاصمة الأوكرانية، كييف، وإسقاط النظام الحالي، وهو ما سيعرضها لانتقادات واسعة من العالم كله، أمام حجم الخسائر التي ستنتج عن اتباعها لأسلوب الأراضي المحروقة، باعتباره الأسلوب الوحيد الذي يضمن عدم تكرار فشلها في حرب المدن.

وأمام احتمالات الزيادة الباهظة للأعباء الاقتصادية العالمية، عما هي عليه الآن، إذا ما طالت أمد تلك الحرب، تجد الجميع يأملون، والبعض يعملون، على أن ينتهي هذا الشتاء، وقد اتفق الأطراف على وقف العمليات العسكرية، والجلوس على طاولة المفاوضات، للوصول إلى حل سلمي فيه خير وصلاح البشرية كلها.


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