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هل تصبح القنبلة العنقودية مفتاح نجاح الهجوم المضاد الأوكراني؟  

لواء د. سمير فرج يكتب:


تدخل هذه الأيام الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية عامها الثاني وقد تبدد الأمل للجميع في أن يعم السلام بين الدولتين وبالتالي على العالم كله، ولكن للأسف فإن بوادر الأحداث تدل على أن هذه الحرب مستمرة وربما حتى آخر هذا العام. ورغم هدوء الأحداث خلال الشتاء الماضي عدا معركة الاستيلاء على مدينة باخموت فلقد كانت القوات الروسية تقوم بتجهيز دفاعاتها على الأراضي الأوكرانية التي استولت عليها في إقليم دونباس في مناطق لوغانسك ودونيتسك وزاباروجيا وخيرسون. وأعتقد أنه طبقاً للعقيدة القتالية الروسية أنها نجحت في تنظيم دفاعات قوية بعمق باستخدام موانع الألغام التي يصعب على أي قوة مهاجمة اختراقها إلا بحجم كبير من القوات. وعلى الجانب الآخر كانت القوات الأوكرانية تجهز للقيام بهجوم مضاد أطلقت عليه هجوم مضاد الربيع بهدف استعادة الأراضي الأوكرانية التي استولت عليها روسيا. ولقد كان تحليلي منذ البداية أن هذا الهجوم المضاد الأوكراني لن يكتب له النجاح لعدة اعتبارات أهمها أن القوات الأوكرانية ليس لديها سيطرة جوية قوية فوق أرض المعركة بل السيطرة الجوية للقوات الروسية. والأمر الثاني أن القوات الأوكرانية ليس لديها التفوق العددي والنوعي من الأسلحة والمعدات لتنفيذ الهجوم المضاد حيث أن مفاهيم القتال تنص على أن المهاجم يجب أن تكون قوته ثلاث أضعاف المدافع وهذا بالطبع لا يمكن أن تحققه القوات الأوكرانية. كذلك كان هناك نقص كبير في قذائف المدفعية الأوكرانية من عيار 155 مم وهي أساس المعارك في مثل هذا النوع من القتال والحرب في المدن. ولذلك أعتقد أنه كان من الأفضل أن تنتظر القوات الأوكرانية وصول طائرات F16 الأمريكية التي وعدت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية بأن تزود بها أوكرانيا وبعد تدريب الطيارين الأوكرانيين عليها لتنفيذ الهجوم. ولكن للأسف بدأت القوات الأوكرانية هذا الهجوم دون انتظار هذه الطائرات ولذلك لم تحقق أي نجاحات. ومن هذا المنطلق قامت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية باتخاذ قرارها بدعم أوكرانيا بالقنابل العنقودية المحرم استخدامها دولياً بهدف دعم قدرات الجيش الأوكراني في تنفيذه للهجمات المضادة لاستعادة أراضيه التي استولت عليها القوات الروسية.

وتوصف هذه القنبلة بأنها مستودع، يحتوي على 300 قنبلة صغيرة، مزودة بعنصر الزركون، لإشعال الحرائق. يُطلق هذا المستودع على ارتفاع محدد من الأرض، لتندفع بعدها القنابل الصغيرة لتدمير الدبابات، والمدرعات، والرادارات، وكافة المعدات العسكرية. ويمتد الأثر الانفجاري للقنبلة العنقودية الواحدة لمساحة تساوى ملعب كرة قدم، أما ما يتبقى منها دون انفجار، فيتحول لألغام، تهدد حياة المواطنين.

سبق لأمريكا استخدام ذلك النوع من القنابل، خلال حرب تحرير الكويت من الغزو العراقي، وكانت أول دولة تستخدم القنبلة العنقودية، هي ألمانيا، أثناء الحرب العالمية الثانية، وأطلقت عليها، حينئذ، «القنبلة الفراشة»، إلا أنها وقعت، لاحقاً، على اتفاقية حظر استخدامها، وأعلنت عدم تزويد أوكرانيا بهذه القنبلة. ويري العديد من المحللين أن الولايات المتحدة دعمت أوكرانيا بهذه القنابل حيث يوجد منها الملايين في مخازنها ، وكانت فرصة كبيرة للتخلص منها بإرسالها إلي أوكرانيا .

ولقد أعلن أنطونيو جوتيريش، السكرتير العام للأمم المتحدة رفض استخدام هذا السلاح في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية، ورغم إعلان الولايات المتحدة التزام أوكرانيا بعدم استخدام تلك القنابل ضد المدنيين، إلا أن معظم منظمات حقوق الإنسان تعترض على استخدام هذه القنبلة في الحرب، ومن بينهم منظمة هيومان رايتس واتش، التي أعلنت مندوبتها رفض المنظمة لاستخدام هذه القنبلة في هذه الحرب.

وهنا يبرز التساؤل ماذا سيكون الرد الروسي عند استخدام أوكرانيا هذا النوع من القنابل، حيث سيكون الرد أن روسيا أيضاً لديها مثل هذا النوع من القنابل التي سوف تستخدمها هي أيضاً ويمكن أن تتوسع في ضرب الاحتياطيات الأوكرانية القائمة بالهجوم المضاد. بل قد تتوسع روسيا في أكثر من ذلك باستخدام الصواريخ الباليستية من طراز كينجال واسكندر لضرب عمق الأراضي الأوكرانية متذرعة أمام العالم كله أنها تحمي نفسها بعد استخدام أوكرانيا هذه القنابل المحرمة دولياً.

ولقد أعلنت نيويورك تايمز هذا الأسبوع أن خسائر أوكرانيا في هذا الهجوم المضاد قد بلغ 20% من حجم القوات المهاجمة وكذلك خسرت أوكرانيا أعداد كبيرة من المركبات المدرعة البرادلي الأمريكية الجديدة والدبابات الألمانية الليوبارد وجميعها من الدعم العسكري الجديد لأوكرانيا ، لدرجة أنه لمن المنتظر ان تفتتح روسيا معرض لغنائم الحرب في موسكو ، لعرض الاسلحة الأمريكية والأروبية التي تم بها دعم أوكرانيا في هذه الحرب وتم تدميرها أو الإستيلاء عليها من قبل القوات الروسية .

ومازالت أوركرانيا حتي الان تصمم علي القيام بهجمات مضادة ضد الدفاعات الروسية رغم عدم نجاحها ، وخاصة أن الولايات االمتحدة أعلنت أنها لن توافق حتي الان علي السماح بقيام بعض دول حلف الناتو بتدريب الطيارين الأوكرانيين ، علي استخدام طائرات F16 الأمريكية التي ستدعم بها أوكرانيا ، وهذا يعني أن استخدام أوكرانيا لهذه الطائرات F 16 لن يتم قبل نهاية هذا العام ، وهذا بالطبع يضعف إمكانية نجاح الهجمة المضادة لأوكرانيا .

لذلك لا أعتقد أن أوكرانيا سوف تحقق نجاحاً بالهجوم المضاد بوصول هذه القنابل العنقودية رغم أنها ستكون إضافة كبيرة لقوة النيران لهذا الهجوم الأوكراني لكنها في النهاية عنصر مساعد لتنفيذ الهجوم وليس عنصراً حاسماً لنجاحه. وهكذا فإنه لم يعد هناك أمل في أن تتوقف هذه الحرب في المستقبل القريب وتلجأ روسيا وأوكرانيا للدخول في مفاوضات سلام وهو الأمر الذي ينتظره العالم كله.

أو علي الأقل دول أوربا التي تدعم أوكرانيا في النواحي الأقتصادية والعسكرية ، وفي حديثه بمؤتمر حلف الناتو وجه رئيس وزراء بريطانيا كلمته للرئيس الأوكراني قائلا ” سيادة الرئيس نحن لسنا في محلات أمازون نحقق لك كل مطالبك ، لذلك فإن الجميع وبينهم الأوربيون في إنتظار إنتهاء هذه الحرب ليعم السلام علي العالم كله.


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