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بعد الانقلاب العسكري … النيجر إلى أين؟

لواء دكتور/ سمير فرج يكتب:


أفاق العالم، في صباح اليوم السابع والعشرين من شهر يوليو، على خبر الانقلاب العسكري في دولة النيجر، ليكمل هذا الانقلاب، حزام الانقلابات في دول غرب أفريقيا، بعد الانقلابات العسكرية في مالي في عامي 2021 و2022، وانقلاب غينيا العسكري في عام 2021، وانقلاب بوركينا فاسو في عام 2022. تلك الدول الفرنكفونية، التي وقعت فريسة للاستعمار الفرنسي، من قبل، وظلت تحت الهيمنة الفرنسية، حتى بعد استقلالها. والواقع أن بعض هذه الدول، بعد حدوث الانقلابات فيها، تحولت من الهيمنة الفرنسية إلى هيمنة دول أخرى؛ فأصبحت مالي تحت الهيمنة الروسية، ويتواجد بها قوات من مجموعة فاجنر، وأصبحت أفريقيا الوسطى، كذلك، تحت السيطرة الروسية، فضلاً عن التدخل الاقتصادي الصيني، في معظم دول إفريقيا، بما فيها الدول الفرنكوفونية.

أطاح الانقلاب الأخير، في النيجر، بالرئيس المنتخب محمد بازوم، أول رئيس من أصل عربي، خاصة وأن المواطنون أصحاب الأصول العربية، لا تتعدى نسبتهم أكثر من واحد ونصف في المائة من سكان النيجر، البالغ عددهم 24مليون نسمة. قاد الانقلاب الجنرال عبد الرحمن تشياني، قائد الحرس الرئاسي، الذي سبق له أن أحبط ثلاث محاولات انقلاب، في عهد الرئيس محمد بازوم، وله شعبية كبيرة بين ضباط قواته من الحرس الرئاسي، وحصل على تأييد القوات المسلحة، فور حدوث الانقلاب، بدعوى الحفاظ على وحدة النيجر، وعدم السماح بتفتيتها. وقد أدان المجتمع الدولي ذلك الانقلاب، بشدة، وهو ما أعربت عنه مكالمة وزير الخارجية الأمريكي، أنتوني بلينكن، لرئيس النيجر محمد بازوم، والتي أكد فيها على دعم الولايات المتحدة له، ومطالبتها بالإفراج عنه، كما تشاور مع رئيس مفوضية الاتحاد الأفريقي، موسى فكي، لبحث تطورات الأمور في النيجر. كذلك عقد الرئيس الفرنسي، ماكرون، اجتماعاً للقوى الدفاعية الفرنسية، وطالب بالإفراج عن رئيس النيجر.

كما لوح عدد من زعماء تنظيم الإيكواس بتدخل عسكري ضد قادة الانقلاب في النيجر، وذلك في أعقاب اجتماع لرؤساء أركان دول الإيكواس، وأمهلوهم أسبوعاً لإعادة النظام الجمهوري، وعودة الرئيس بازوم، علماً بأن منظمة الإيكواس هي منظمة اقتصادية مكونة من 15 دولة من دول غرب أفريقيا، وهم النيجر، ونيجيريا، ومالي، وبوركينا فاسو، وبنين، وتوغو، وغانا، وساحل العاج، وليبيريا، وسيراليون، وغينيا، وغينيا بيساو، وجامبيا، والسنغال، والرأس الأخضر، بمجموع سكان يصل إلى 385 مليون نسمة. وبعد انقضاء مهلة الإنذار، في منتصف الأسبوع الجاري، فقد أعلن زعماء دول الإيكواس عن اجتماعهم اليوم، لبحث تطورات الأزمة، وتقرير الخطوات التالية لبلادهم بشأنها.

ومن جانبهم، أعلن قادة الانقلاب، في النيجر، تحذيرهم بأن أي تدخل عسكري، سوف يجابه برد عسكري، فوري. كما أعلنت سلطة الانقلاب إيقاف كافة المعاهدات مع فرنسا، مع تعليق صادراتها من اليورانيوم، مما يعتبر ضربة قوية ضد فرنسا، التي تعتمد مفاعلاتها النووية البالغ عددها 65 مفاعلاً نووياً، بصورة شبه كاملة، على يورانيوم النيجر، عن طريق شركة أيفا الفرنسية، المحتكرة لكامل إنتاج، اليورانيوم في النيجر، منذ عام 1971، ولم ترفع أسعاره منذ ذلك الوقت. وعلى الطرف الآخر أعلنت فرنسا أن ذلك القرار باطلاً، باعتباره لم يصدر من القوة الشرعية، المُعترف به دولياً، للبلاد ويقصد بها الرئيس الدولة محمد بازوم، في نفس الوقت الذي بدأت فيه بإجلاء رعاياها من النيجر، حفاظاً على سلامتهم.

ومن ناحية أخرى حذرت السلطات في كل من بوركينا فاسو، ومالي، في بيان مشترك من أن أي تدخل عسكري في النيجر، لإعادة الرئيس محمد بازوم إلى الحكم، سيكون بمثابة إعلان حرب على البلدين، كما أن أي محاولة للتدخل العسكري ستؤدي إلى انسحاب الدولتين، بوركينا فاسو ومالي، من المجموعة الاقتصادية لدول غرب أفريقيا. كذلك أعلن المجلس العسكري في غينيا معارضته للتدخل العسكري في النيجر، أو توقيع أية عقوبات اقتصادية عليها، وفي ذات السياق، أعلن مجلس الشيوخ في نيجيريا رفضه لأي تدخل عسكري، وقامت نيجيريا بقطع الكهرباء عن النيجر. ورغم أنها ليست عضواً في منظمة إيكواس، إلا أن الجزائر أعلنت رفضها لتدخل أي قوات أجنبية في النيجر.

وقد اعتمد عدداً من تلك الآراء الدبلوماسية في رفضه للتدخل العسكري، على أنه عملاً يقتضي موافقة مجلس الأمن، مثلما حدث من قبل سواء لتحرير الكويت من الاجتياح العراقي، أو الهجوم على ليبيا لإزاحة القذافي. جدير بالذكر، أنه يوجد على أرض النيجر حوالي ٣٢٠٠ جندي، منهم ١٥٠٠ جندي فرنسي، و١١٠٠ جندي أمريكي، و٣٠٠ جندي إيطالي، و١٠٠ ألماني، و٢٥٠ جندي من دول الاتحاد الأوروبي، بالإضافة إلى قاعدة جوية أمريكية، لتوجيه الطائرات ضد العناصر الإرهابية، وقد طالبت قوة الانقلاب العسكري برحيل القوات الأجنبية، إلا أن دولهم رفضت، لأن القرار لم يصدر من القوى المعترف بها للبلاد.

ومن وجهة نظري، فإن أبرز كوارث ذلك الانقلاب، والتوتر الحادث في دول غرب أفريقيا، تتمثل في احتمالات استعادة نشاط الإرهاب الديني المتطرف، متمثلاً في تنظيم القاعدة، ومنظمة بوكوحرام، اعتماداً على غياب القوات المسلحة النظامية، القادرة على التصدي له، بل وسيمتد نطاق عملياتهم الإرهابية إلى باقي دول أفريقيا، في ظل ما أكدت عليه، مراراً، من أننا نعيش في زمن الأواني المستطرقة، بمعنى أن أي حدث في مكان ما، تنعكس أثاره على باقي مناطق العالم، ولنا في الحرب الروسية-الأوكرانية عبرة.


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