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التصعيد العسكري الإسرائيلي اتجاه جنوب لبنان وغزة رؤية تحليلية

لواء دكتور/ سمير فرج يكتب:


شهدت الأيام الماضية تصاعد عسكري إسرائيلي اتجاه جنوب لبنان وقطاع غزة. مما أدى إلى مقتل عددا من الإسرائيليين وسقوط شهداء من الفلسطينيين وبمتابعة هذه الأحداث، لماذا في هذا التوقيت بالذات أن يبدأ هذا التصاعد ومن الذي بدأ وما الهدف منه. من هنا أقدم تحليلا لهذه الأحداث موضحا الأسباب والنتائج والأهداف.

واسمحوا لي في البداية أن اوضح أن إسرائيل نجحت لأول مرة منذ فترة طويلة في اجراء انتخابات وتكوين وزارة برئاسة نتانياهو، هذه الوزارة التي أطلق عليها وزارة يمنية دينية متطرفة. وهي أول وزارة تحمل هذا المعنى منذ عدة سنوات. حيث أجريت هذه الانتخابات وهي الخامسة خلال السنوات الثلاث الماضية. حيث لم يتمكن أي حزب منذ عام 2019 من تشكيل ائتلاف مستقر.

وجاءت النتائج هذه المرة بحصول معسكر أقصى اليمين بعدد 64 من المقاعد من البالغ عددهم 120 مقعد تعيين نتانياهو كرئيس للوزراء وفور توليه رئاسة الوزراء أعلن القيام بما يسمى بالإصلاحات القضائية في إسرائيل. وهو الأمر الذي أحدث ضجة كبيرة داخل إسرائيل وخارجها.

وكان هدف هذه الإصلاحات الحد من سلطات المحكمة العليا بل أصبح من حق الكنيست الإسرائيلي إيقاف أي احكام تصدرها المحكمة العليا الإسرائيلية وهذا بالطبع كان هدفه لصالح نتنياهو الذي كان عليه ثلاثة قضايا فساد ومعرض ان يصدر ضده احكام في الفترة القادمة لذلك جاء ذلك القرار لإلغاء أي حكم يصدر ضده كذلك منح الكنيست سلطة أكبر في تعيين القضاة هذه التعديلات في الإصلاحات القضائية أثارت إستياء الشعب الإسرائيلي ومنهم وزير الدفاع الأمر الذي أدى إلى قيام رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بعزله من منصبه، ولكن تم اعادة نيتنياهو هذا الأسبوع الي منصبه امام ضغط الجماهير لذلك خرج عشرات الآلاف من الإسرائيليين في الشوارع في كل يوم سبت احتجاجا على مشروع إصلاح القضاء الإسرائيلي. حتى أن الولايات المتحدة أعلنت رفضها لهذا المشروع. وكان رد نتنياهو أن الولايات المتحدة لا تملك أي سلطة على إسرائيل. وكذلك معظم دول اوروبا

وإزاء هذه الضغوط من الشعب الإسرائيلي والدول الغربية، امتدت المظاهرات في شوارع إسرائيل كل يوم سبت. لمدة 11 اسبوع حتى الان ولم يكن أمام نتنياهو إلا أن يبدأ بإشغال الرأي العام الإسرائيلي عن موضوع الاصلاحات القضائية ويظهر له مشكلة الأمن الاسرائيلي الداخلي. حيث بدأت على الفور خطة نتانياهو في اثارة الفلسطينيين، وذلك لاقتحام الشرطة الإسرائيلية للحرم القدسي، وأعلنت الشرطة الإسرائيلية أنها أوقفت أكثر من 300 شخصا في الحرم القدسي، كما قام عدد من المتطرفين الإسرائيليين بالاعتصام داخل الحرم القدسي والتضييق على المصليين الفلسطينيين ومنعهم من أداء صلاه الفجر كذلك قام المئات من المستوطنين باقتحام الأقصى وقامت إسرائيل بأغلاق الحرم الابراهيمي.

بعدها توالت الإدانات العربية والدولية لهذا الاقتحام وكان أهمهم البيت الأبيض. والأمين العام للأمم المتحدة ومصر ومعظم الدول العربية، ودفعت هذه التطورات. إلى عقد اجتماع طارئ لمستوى المندوبين لجامعة الدول العربية. لبحث التطورات في الأرض الفلسطينية، كما عقد مجلس الأمن جلسة طارئة لبحث ذلك التصعيد وتطور الموقف بعدها ليبدأ التصعيد من المقاومة الفلسطينية بإطلاق الصواريخ من قطاع غزة وجنوب لبنان اتجاه إسرائيل مما دعي إسرائيل إلى شن غاراتها. حيث قامت اسرائيل بالإغارة على جنوب لبنان وغزة مؤكده على ضرب أهداف لحركة حماس ردا على إطلاق الصواريخ على أراضيها ومن قطاع جنوب لبنان حيث تم قصف جنوب سيناء وهكذا تكهرب الموقف وتحول فكر المواطن الإسرائيلي للأمن الداخلي.

وجاء إعلان إسرائيل أنها للمرة الأولى التي استهدفت فيها الأراضي اللبنانية منذ 2022، حيث أعلنت إسرائيل أن أكثر من ثلاثين صاروخ أطلق عليها من جنوب لبنان تجاه أراضيها متهمة فصائل فلسطينية وليس حزب الله وفي محاولة للتهدئة أعلنت القوة الدولية يونيفيل التي تنتشر على الحدود جنوب لبنان. ان كلا الطرفين لا يريدان القتال. وفي قطاع غزة، نفذ الجيش الإسرائيلي غارات ضد الأنفاق وموقعين لإنتاج الأسلحة التابعين لحماسة ردا على الصواريخ التي أطلقتها حماس من قطاع غزة تجاه إسرائيل. وتقول إسرائيل أنها تلقت 100 صاروخ في 10 دقائق.

لذلك يمكن تحليل هذا التصعيد الإسرائيلي اتجاه جنوب لبنان وغزة أنه في البداية جاء لتشتيت فكر الشارع الإسرائيلي اتجاه. الإصلاحات القضائية التي أعلنها نتانياهو. ليتحول فكر الشارع الإسرائيلي ليكون في اتجاه أمن إسرائيل وليصبح المرتبة الأولى في فكر الشارع الإسرائيلي. ولكي يتناسى على الفور قضية الإصلاحات القضائية وهذا ما حدث بالفعل حيث يعتبر ذلك نجاح لرئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي نتانياهو.

اما السبب الثاني في هذا التصعيد العسكري الإسرائيلي، فهو أنه أمر يتم كل سنة حيث كانت معركة غزة الرابعة في عام 2021 التي استمرت إحدى عشر يوم ونجحت مصر في إيقاف إطلاق النار وجاءت معركة غزة الخامسة في عام 2022 ونجحت مصر بجهودها في الاتصالات مع تل أبيب وغزة في إيقاف القتال هذه المرة جاء تدخل مصر منذ البداية أيضا مع الجانب الإسرائيلي وحماس. لإيقاف إطلاق النار ولكن كان الهدف الإسرائيلي من هذه العمليات هو استنزاف قوة المقاومة العسكرية الفلسطينية على سبيل المثال الصواريخ التي تحصل عليها حماس من إيران تتم استخدامها في هذه العمليات. ويكفي أن هذه المرة استخدمت حماس 100 صاروخ من مخزونها وسيحتاج ذلك إلى جهود كبيرة لتعويضه من إيران ونقله إلى غزة.

أما الهدف الثاني من قيام إسرائيل. بهذا التطور هو تدمير مصانع الأسلحة والمواقع الجديدة في مترو أنفاق غزة والتي أقامتها حماس في الفترة الماضية. أما الهدف الثالث من التصعيد العسكري وهو اختبار أي قدرات جديدة من المقاومة ابتكارتها حماس في تنظيم قواتها العسكرية في غزة، وكذلك اختبار مدى نجاح التطور الذي تحدثه إسرائيل في نظام القبة الحديدية في كل معركة، مع حماس.

وهكذا كانت هذه التحليلات العسكرية للتصعيد العسكري الإسرائيلي اتجاه جنوب لبنان وغزة، حتى أن الجميع كان يسأل هل من الممكن أن يتطور النزاع هذه المرة في المنطقة ويأخذ نطاق أوسع وكان ردي أيامها من خلال كل المداخلات التليفزيونية أن ذلك التصعيد سيكون محدودا للغاية لأن هدفه كان تحقيق أهداف محددة وهي شغل الشارع الإسرائيلي على ما يحدث من مقترحات نتانياهو بخصوص الإصلاحات القضائية. وحتى أن حزب الله لم يفكر أو يغامر أن يتدخل في هذا التصعيد وأعتقد أنها كانت سقطة كبيرة لحزب الله ستحسب عليه في الفترة القادمة.


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